July and August are typically the rainiest months in India and are crucial for kharif crop sowing. However, in recent decades, the country has experienced a decline in rainfall during these two months compared to previous decades.
To put this into perspective: between 1901 and 1994, the July-August rainfall exceeded the 600mm mark 28 times, averaging once every 3.4 years. However, in the last 30 years, this 600mm threshold has not been breached even once.
“In the last 20-30 years, we have barely seen what can be called a strongly wet year where the monsoon has been clearly above 10% of normal,” noted Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
An analysis of the 30-year average rainfall during July and August highlights this decreasing trend. From 1995 to 2024, the average monsoon rainfall during these months was 530.2mm. This is significantly lower than the averages recorded in previous 30-year periods: 543mm from 1965-1994, 587.1mm from 1935-1964, and 559.3mm from 1905-1934.
Koll explains that “climate change patterns are becoming more regional. Earlier, epochal and decadal patterns were much clearer.” He adds that these patterns now seem to be disrupted, and the all-India picture, which is an aggregate of regional trends, may be reflecting the decrease in monsoon rainfall in certain regions.
