NEW DELHI: The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that North India may face a harsh winter this year, particularly in northwest regions like Delhi-NCR and adjacent central areas, due to anticipated La Nina conditions forming between October and November.
The summer monsoon, which concluded on Monday, recorded nearly 8% more rainfall than normal, classifying it as ‘above normal.’ The IMD forecasts a complete withdrawal of the monsoon from the country by mid-October, with the winter monsoon expected to arrive in the southeastern peninsula around October 17.
La Nina, a climate phenomenon characterized by the cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, is often linked to beneficial monsoon rains in the Indian subcontinent. However, it was notably absent during this year’s summer monsoon, despite predictions from various global models.
According to IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, there is a 71% likelihood that La Nina conditions will develop in the coming months. “Historically, years with La Nina result in below-normal temperatures in northern India, particularly in northwest regions, leading to potential cold wave conditions during winter,” he stated.
Mr. Mohapatra emphasized that the severity of this year’s La Nina remains uncertain, as it is still weak. The IMD will continue to monitor its development and provide a more accurate forecast in November.
This year’s above-normal rainfall can be attributed to several factors, including six depressions, 14 low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, and one cyclonic storm, Asna, in the Arabian Sea. The increased rainfall has not only expanded the area for kharif (summer-sown) crops beyond the average of the last five years—promising a good crop yield—but has also replenished reservoirs for irrigation needs of rabi (winter-sown) crops and hydroelectric power generation.
