China’s crude imports rose 12.2% month over month to a 15-month high of 11.86 million b/d (48.52 million mt) in November, data from the General Administration of Customs showed Dec. 10, although the sharp increase is unlikely to be sustained.
Inflows were up 14.3% from November 2023, marking the first monthly year-over-year increase since April. The country’s imports were last higher in August 2023, when they reached 12.49 million b/d.
“It was a typical adjustment following the low imports in October, similar to trends seen in previous years,” a Beijing-based analyst said.
The Golden Week holidays in October typically slow customs administration, leading to a month-over-month reduction in crude inflows. The volume usually accumulates for November imports, market sources said.
Meanwhile, China’s seaborne crude imports rose about 7.1% from October to around 10.6 million b/d in November, a level similar to that in June, S&P Global Commodities at Sea(opens in a new tab) data showed. Crude inflows via pipelines remained stable for the year as of end-November, trade sources said.
The country imported 11.35 million b/d of crude in June, GAC data showed.
Inventories rebound
Some of these import increases were directed to storage, as weak demand capped refinery crude throughput in November, market sources said.
China’s onshore inventories grew by 10 million barrels (333,333 b/d) to 1.113 billion barrels in November, according to Uras Space data.
About 137,000 b/d of the month-over-month increase were contributed by independent refineries, which raised their purchases to utilize their new crude import quotas by the year-end, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.
With the rebound in November, the world’s top crude importer saw its imports over January-November fall 2.2%, or 252,000 b/d, year over year to 11.06 million b/d, a smaller decline compared with the 3.4% drop seen over January-October.
The GAC releases data in metric tons, which Commodity Insights converts to barrels using a conversion factor of 7.33. On a metric ton basis, inflows in November rose 8.6% from October, while volumes for the first 11 months of the year fell 1.9% year over year.
In contrast to a jump of 1.1 million b/d in 2023, Commodity Insights analysts expect China’s crude imports to decline 285,000 b/d year over year in 2024, amid a 402,000-b/d drop in crude throughput.
Oil product exports highest since June
China’s oil product exports reached 5.23 million mt in November, the highest since June, when shipments stood at 5.367 million mt, as oil companies sought to maximize their clean product outflows to save costs and avoid the 4% value-added tax on exports.
The government announced Nov. 15 a reduction in the VAT rebate for exporting gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel to 9% from 13%, effective Dec. 1.
The November volume brought the country’s oil product exports for the first 11 months to 54.39 million mt, down 6.3% year over year, GAC data showed.
Market sources said clean product outflows in December are set to fall from November levels due to limited export quota availability, and the tax rebate cut would lead to a $3-$4/b increase in export costs.
GAC’s oil product import and export data are believed to include a range of oil products, with gasoline, gasoil, jet fuel and fuel oil accounting for the majority. A detailed breakdown of products will be released Dec. 18.
Source: Platts
