Global exports and use of thermal coal will reach all-timehighs in 2024, despite the record roll-out of renewable energy generation capacity across all major continents.
Exports of thermal coal through the first 11 months of 2024 are up by 9 million metric tons from the same months in 2023, per Kpler ship-tracking data, and will climb further in December as power firms stock up for the Northern hemisphere winter.
Global coal-fired power generation is up by around 2% to new highs so far in 2024, while coal-fired power emissions are also at a record, data from energy think tank Ember shows.
The continued expansion in coal imports and use underscores the difficulty of dislodging fossil fuels from energy systems, and may disappoint those hoping for a peak in coal burning.
However, climate advocates can take heart from the slowing pace of export growth, which at only 1% marks the smallest annual expansion since 2020, when COVID-19 lockdowns sparked a rare contraction in worldwide energy output.
Climate watchdogs may also be cheered by annual declines in coal imports by several of the largest coal-consuming nations, which if repeated next year could trigger falls in coal exports from 2025.
Below are the key countries that have helped lift coal exports to record highs in 2024, and will be the main drivers of coal purchases and use in the years ahead.
GROWTH MARKETS
For Indonesia, the world’s top coal exporter, 2024 will be a banner year and mark the first time the country has shipped out over 500 million metric tons of thermal coal, according to Kpler.
Australia will come in second with around 203 million tons, followed by Russia (94 million tons), South Africa (55 million tons), and Colombia (50 million tons).
Just 10 countries account for 87% of global coal imports so far in 2024: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, The Philippines, Malaysia, Turkey and Thailand.
And half of those buyers will record an annual decline in coal purchases in 2024.
Unfortunately for climate trackers, top coal consumer China – which accounts for 35% of all thermal coal imports – remains in the import growth category.
China expanded imports by around 8% to a record 340 million tons from January 1st through the first week of December, according to Kpler.
China’s electricity generation from coal-fired plants climbed 2% over the first 10 months of 2024 to a new record of 4,838 terawatt hours, according to Ember, making 2024 the ninth consecutive year of coal-fired expansion in China.
However, rapidly rising renewable energy production has helped cut coal’s share of electricity generation to a record low of 58.7% so far in 2024, from almost 62% in 2023 and more than 66% in 2019.
For now, China’s total coal consumption levels remain on a rising path even as coal’s share of the generation mix declines.
But over time China’s total coal needs should also decline in line with coal share, and result in steadily diminishing coal use, production and imports by the country.
Beyond China, other key growth markets for coal imports and consumption this year are across Southeast Asia, where several economies have benefited from expanded manufacturing output and exports, and rising regional consumption.
Vietnam boosted its coal imports by nearly 7 million tons (or 24%) to a record in the first 11 months of this year from the same period in 2023, and has raised coal-fired electricity production by 17%.
The Philippines and Malaysia have both also lifted coal imports to record highs this year, and have raised coal-fired generation in line with overall electricity output.
Thailand’s coal imports were up nearly 5% this year, matching a similar rise in coal-fired and total electricity generation.
CONTRACTIONS
Over the first 11 months of 2024, the second, third, fourth and fifth largest coal importers all reduced imports compared to the same months in 2023.
India, the number two coal importer, cut imports by nearly 10 million tons from 2023 levels, due in large part to a climb in domestic coal production.
South Korea cut imports by close to 6 million tons, while Japan cut coal imports by around 3.1 million tons and Taiwan cut imports by 3.8 million tons.
Turkey, the ninth largest importer, has so far in 2024 cut imports by around 1 million tons from the same period in 2023.
Collectively, those countries imported around 23.5 million tons less coal than during January-November in 2023.
What’s more, 2024 will be the second consecutive year when Japan, South Korea and Taiwan will all record lower coal imports from the year before, as theypursue decarbonisation targets.
India’s fast-growing economy is likely to trigger sporadic revivals in coal imports going forward, as it relies on coal for around 70% of electricity production.
Vietnam and the Philippines are also likely to further increase coal imports in the coming years as their power demand needs exceed domestic clean energy supply growth.
However, over the longer run, all major coal importers have energy system decarbonisation goals that should see coal’s share of the overall energy mix fall steadily lower from around the middle of this century.
Source: Reuters (Reporting By Gavin Maguire; Editing by Saad Sayeed)
