The likelihood of a ‘city-killer’ asteroid striking Earth in 2032 has recently doubled, raising concerns among astronomers and space agencies worldwide. The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, previously had a 1.2% chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032. However, recent observations have increased the probability to one in 43 (2.3%), prompting NASA and international space agencies to take urgent action.
NASA Deploys James Webb Space Telescope for Critical Measurements
In response, the Center for Near Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory has updated its Sentry list, leading to an emergency allocation of time on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). This mission aims to determine the asteroid’s exact size, which could significantly impact its potential danger level.
Though 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters (130-300 feet) in diameter, the European Space Agency (ESA) has emphasized the need for greater precision. “A 40-meter asteroid would pose a very different hazard than a 90-meter asteroid,” an ESA spokesperson stated, adding that astronomers worldwide are closely tracking its orbit.
Potential Impact Zone and Damage Estimates
If 2024 YR4 were to collide with Earth, its impact zone—dubbed the “risk corridor”—includes:
- The eastern Pacific Ocean
- Northern South America
- The Atlantic Ocean
- Africa
- The Arabian Sea
- South Asia
According to the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), such a strike could trigger severe blast damage within 50 kilometers (31 miles) of the impact site. Scientists estimate that, if it hit Earth, 2024 YR4 could release energy equivalent to 15 megatons of TNT—100 times more powerful than the Hiroshima nuclear bomb, which claimed between 100,000 and 180,000 lives.
Key Observations in March and May
The JWST will conduct two crucial observations:
- March 2024: When the asteroid reaches peak brightness, allowing astronomers to refine its size and reflectivity.
- May 2024: The last opportunity to study 2024 YR4 before it leaves visual range, not returning until 2028.
Planetary Defense: To Deflect or Not?
The JWST’s data will be critical in determining whether planetary defense measures—such as asteroid deflection—are necessary. While 2024 YR4 is not large enough to cause a global catastrophe, its impact could devastate a major city or region.
First spotted in December 2023 by the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, 2024 YR4 is now one of the most closely monitored space threats. Scientists and governments worldwide are preparing for the worst-case scenario—even as they hope for the best.
