Australia has raised its projected metallurgical coal exports for the fiscal year 2024-25 (July-June) by 1.2% to 163 million mt, from 161 million mt estimated in September, data released Dec. 20 by the Department of Industry, Science and Resources showed.
“A reduced likelihood of La Nina weather disruptions results in an upward revision to export volumes…” the department said, along with higher met coal output.
Australia’s export volumes were forecast to continue rising to 174 million mt by 2025-26, partly driven by the expected ramp-up of new mines, it added.
The ramping up of new mines is anticipated to boost production volumes to 178 million mt in 2025-26, from an expected 169 million mt in 2024-25, according to department data. This would mark two consecutive year-over-year increases from 160 million mt in 2023-24.
“Australian Pacific Coal commenced production at Dartbrook Underground in September, targeting 2 million mt/year production in 2026. Futura Resources expects first coal at its Fairhill site in the December 2024 quarter after the Wilton pit commenced full operation earlier this year,” the department said.
However, lower prices are expected to offset the higher export volumes, with earnings from exports projected to fall to A$43 billion ($25.53 billion) in 2024-25 and A$41 billion by 2025-26, from A$54 billion in 2023-24.
Still, the department noted that the risk of premium hard coking coal FOB East Coast Australia prices falling below $200/mt would be limited by the negative profits at higher-cost mines.
The estimations also expect spot prices to average at $204/mt in 2025, down from the estimate of $245/mt in 2024.
The Platts assessments of the premium low volatile hard coking coal index averaged $207.6/mt FOB Australia for the July 1-Dec. 19 period, while the year-to-date average stood at $242/mt as of Dec. 19, S&P Global Commodity Insights data showed.
Iron ore export forecast cut on weak steel demand
Meanwhile, the department lowered its projected iron ore exports for 2024-25 to 914 million mt, from the 915 million mt estimated in September, when the forecast was raised from 905 million mt in June.
Amid the cut, the department said that world steel production has been relatively weak in 2024, “falling noticeably in H2 2024.”
Over January-September, global steel production totaled 1.39 billion mt, “…1.6%, or 23 million mt below the corresponding period in 2023,” it said.
“Steel demand continues to be affected by the weakness in industrial output that has persisted since early 2023. Ongoing weakness in housing construction — due to declines in household purchasing power and tight financing conditions — also continues to affect steel demand,” the department said.
As a result, “the outlook for iron ore prices remains soft due to the strong supply outlook and weaker steel demand,” it said, estimating global prices to average $80/mt FOB in 2025 and fall to $76/mt in 2026, both lower than about $92/mt in 2024.
Platts, part of Commodity Insight, assessed the 62% Fe Iron Ore Index at $102.05/dry mt CFR North China on Dec. 19, down $1.35/dmt from Dec. 18.
Source: Platts
