The corporate oil and gas sector faces a year of big decisions in 2024. Consolidation will remain in the spotlight as companies position to build scale and strengthen sustainability through the energy transition. Growth will make a comeback. But companies will not put their financial strength at risk in what threatens to be a turbulent year.
In Corporate Oil & gas: 5 Things to Look for in 2024 we assess the outlook for the NOCs, Independents, and Majors, focusing on five themes.
NOCs step up activity
COP28 has placed greater emphasis on sustainability plans. The knock-on effect for some NOCs – a peer group that produces half of the world’s oil and gas – will be bigger ambitions in low carbon and emissions abatement, particularly for those signed up to the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter (OGDC).
However most NOCs are still in the business of growing upstream capacity. It’s a strategy that has been emboldened by the energy security concerns of the last 24 months.
Crunch time for upstream emissions – with methane a priority
The politicization of the energy transition might make for an unstable fiscal and regulatory environment as election cycles kick into gear in the US and Europe. But the reality is that companies must advance scope 1 and 2 emissions reduction to improve long-term sustainability.
Emissions leaders will enter crunch time for their interim scope 1 and 2 targets, with leaders targeting net zero in 2025. Companies will prioritize the elimination of methane emissions, boosted by COP28 commitments. They will also have to start preparing for changes to EPA rules and expected SEC mandatory reporting of emissions.
Near-term scope 1 and 2 targets are in the spotlight – but is backtracking on scope 3 goals a risk?
Sustainability concerns, stakeholder pressures, and low valuation multiples will drive companies to adjust their strategic playbook.
Investors want a reliable, growing base dividend as a reward for rising energy transition risks. But companies will have to grow cash flow if they want to grow dividends, re-balancing capital allocation towards investment to maintain sustainable cash-generating businesses.
Also in Corporate oil and gas: 5 things to look for in 2023:
Will 2024 see fewer, bigger Independents emerge as consolidation continues? Will US Big Oil transition leaders start to close the sustainability gap with the largest Euro Majors? And what are the wildcards to watch out for?
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
