Over Week 49, the MABUX global bunker indices exhibited no clear trend, showing sideways changes. The 380 HSFO index increased by 4.76 USD: from 514.00 USD/MT last week to 518.76 USD/MT. The VLSFO index, on the contrary, decreased by 2.34 USD (592.42 USD/MT versus 594.76 USD/MT last week), maintaining its position below the $600 mark. The MGO index also dropped by 7.12 USD (from 762.81 USD/MT last week to 755.69 USD/MT). At the time of writing, there was no clear trend in the global bunker market, and indices continued fluctuating in opposing directions.
MABUX Global Scrubber Spread (SS) – the price difference between 380 HSFO and VLSFO – declined by $7.10, dropping from $80.76 to $73.66, staying well below the SS breakeven mark of $100.00. The weekly average of the index also decreased by $2.73. Rotterdam registered the sharpest SS Spread decline: down $16.00 ($42.00 vs. $58.00 last week). The weekly average also fell by $4.67. In Singapore, the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price spread narrowed by $11.00: from $94.00 last week to $83.00, with a weekly average decline of $16.83. Overall, the SS Spread continues its downward trend, reducing the economic advantage of the 380 HSFO + Scrubber setup, favoring conventional VLSFO 0.5% sulphur fuel. We do not expect significant changes in the 380 HSFO/VLSFO price differential next week.
The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Asia could exceed $20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) this winter as European supplies tighten, Goldman Sachs reports. Europe’s Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas benchmark has reached its highest level in two years, driven by rising heating demand amid colder winter temperatures. In response, LNG traders are redirecting cargoes from Asia to Europe, which offers higher premiums. At least 11 shipments have been rerouted in recent weeks. As of December 02, European regional storage facilities were 84.65% full (down 3.65% from last week), and gas extraction continues. At the end of the 49th week, the European gas benchmark TTF continued to grow plus 1.341 euro/MWh (48.557 euro/MWh versus 47.216 euro/MWh last week).
The price of LNG as a bunker fuel in the port of Sines (Portugal) dropped by 20 USD by the end of the week compared to the previous week, settling at 1008 USD/MT on December 02. Despite the decrease, it remained above the 1000 USD/MT threshold. At the same time, the price gap between LNG and conventional fuel also narrowed. On December 02, the difference was 270 USD in favor of MGO LS, down from 287 USD a week earlier. MGO LS was quoted at 738 USD/MT in the port of Sines on this date.
During Week 49, the MABUX Market Differential Index (MDI) (the ratio of market bunker prices (MBP Index) to the MABUX digital bunker benchmark (DBP Index)) recorded underpricing for all types of bunker fuel across major hubs: Rotterdam, Singapore, Fujairah and Houston::
- 380 HSFO segment: Underprice weekly averages fell by 4 points in Rotterdam, 6 in Singapore, 1 in Fujairah, and 7 in Houston. The MDI values in Rotterdam and Houston neared the 100% correlation mark between the market price and the MABUX digital benchmark.
- VLSFO segment: Weekly underpricing rose by 1 point in Rotterdam, 9 in Singapore, and 4 in Fujairah, while falling by 6 points in Houston. Singapore and Fujairah reached near-complete MBP/DBP correlation.
- MGO LS segment: Weekly average undervaluation widened by 1 point in Rotterdam but narrowed by 4 points in Singapore, 11 in Fujairah, and 12 in Houston. The MDI index in Rotterdam and Singapore remains at the $100.00 mark.
At the end of the week, the balance of overvalued/undervalued ports did not change. Undervaluation remains the dominant trend, which is likely to persist into next week.
The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has reported 69 confirmed attacks on international shipping vessels transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since November 2023. This update underscores the heightened security risks in the maritime region. The report focuses on incidents that meet specific criteria outlined in a UN Security Council resolution. These include identification of the vessel by authoritative sources, confirmation of responsibility by the Houthis, and verification of the attack by the flag state or the vessel’s operator. Attacks that do not meet these criteria are excluded. For instance, in August 2024, three incidents were not included in the official report because the Houthis did not claim responsibility.
An analysis by Brussels-based Transport & Environment (T&E) reveals that Europe’s container ships are emitting as much pollution on average as they did in 2018. The report emphasizes that there is likely no significant link between fuel prices and ship speeds, despite slower speeds being a key factor in improving operational efficiency and reducing emissions. T&E highlights that the most substantial reductions in emissions come from sailing at slower speeds. The organization urges the European Commission to implement energy efficiency measures, including speed limits for ships, to address this issue. Additionally, T&E advocates for the wider adoption of technologies such as wind propulsion and the application of a Carbon Intensity Index (CII) to vessels docking at European ports to further curb emissions.
The global bunker market remains devoid of definitive movers. Irregular fluctuations across indices are expected to persist next week.
Source: By Sergey Ivanov, Director, MABUX
