NEW DELHI: October 2024 has officially become the warmest October on record for India, surpassing the previous high set in 1951, according to the Met Office. Central India, which includes Madhya Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra, and Chhattisgarh, recorded the highest mean temperatures, while northwest India, including Delhi-NCR, marked its second warmest October since 1901.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that above-normal temperatures may persist across many regions in the first two weeks of November. A slight drop in temperatures is anticipated in the second week, followed by a gradual cooling trend for the rest of the month.
As for winter predictions, the IMD is unable to provide a clear outlook due to the lack of a developing La Niña, a climate phenomenon typically associated with cooler temperatures in northern and northwest India. However, there is potential for La Niña to form in November or December, which could indicate a harsher winter from December to February.
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra noted that while La Niña is generally linked to decreased temperatures during winter, current models have not accurately predicted its onset. “We need to understand why global models have faltered,” he stated, emphasizing the need for further research into the delayed La Niña formation despite favorable conditions.
Mohapatra attributed the unusually warm October to the formation of four low-pressure systems, a late withdrawal of the summer monsoon, and a lack of western disturbances. For November, the IMD predicts above-normal maximum temperatures for northeast and east-central India, as well as parts of northwest and Peninsular India, while normal to below-normal temperatures are expected in west-central India and adjacent regions. Most areas of the country, aside from some parts of northwest India, are likely to experience above-normal minimum temperatures, resulting in warmer nights.
