Crude Oil Price Movements
In November, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value dropped by $1.47, or 2.0%, month-on-month (m-o-m), to average $72.98/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract dropped by $1.98, or 2.6%, m-o-m, to average $73.40/b, while NYMEX WTI dropped by $2.02, or 2.8%, m-o-m, to average $69.54/b. GME Oman front-month contract dropped by $2.55, or 3.4%, m-o-m, to average $72.48/b. The ICE Brent-NYMEX WTI first month spread remained little changed, widening marginally by 4¢/b, m-o-m, to average $3.86/b. The forward curves of oil futures prices flattened further, with the nearest time spreads contracting but remaining in backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers raised their net long positions but maintained a bearish stance on oil prices.
World Economy
The world economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.1% for 2024 and 3.0% for 2025. The US economic growth forecast for 2024 is revised up slightly to 2.8%, reflecting robust growth in 2H24. For 2025, the US growth forecast is also revised up slightly to 2.2%. Japan’s growth forecast remains unchanged at 0.1% in 2024, but for 2025, it is revised up slightly to 1.0%. The Eurozone’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 0.8%, and 1.2%, respectively. China’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 4.9% for 2024 and 4.7% for 2025. India’s economic growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 remain unchanged at 6.8%, and 6.3%, respectively. The economic growth forecast for Brazil is revised up slightly to 3.1% for 2024, but remains at 2.1% for 2025. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain unchanged at 3.5% for 2024 and 1.7% for 2025.
World Oil Demand
The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 is revised down by 210 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment to 1.6 mb/d, year-on-year (y-o-y). This minor adjustment is mainly due to updated data for 1Q24, 2Q24 and 3Q24. In the OECD, oil demand is expected to grow by around 0.1 mb/d, while non-OECD demand is forecast to expand by close to 1.5 mb/d in 2024. Global oil demand growth for 2025 is also revised down by 90 tb/d from the previous month’s assessment to 1.4 mb/d, y-o-y. OECD demand is expected to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2025, while demand in the non-OECD is forecast to expand by 1.3 mb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-DoC liquids supply (i.e. liquids supply from countries not participating in the DoC) is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024, revised up slightly from last month’s assessment. The main growth drivers are expected to be the US and Canada. For 2025, the non-DoC liquids supply growth forecast is expected to grow by 1.1 mb/d, y-o-y, unchanged from last month. Growth is anticipated to be mainly driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Norway. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2024 to average 8.3 mb/d, followed by an increase of about 80 tb/d, y-o-y, in 2025 to average 8.4 mb/d. Crude oil production by the countries participating in the DoC increased by 0.32 mb/d in November compared with the previous month, averaging about 40.67 mb/d, as reported by available secondary sources.
Product Markets and Refining Operations
In November, refinery margins rose further to show gains for the second consecutive month in key trading hubs. An improvement in product buying interest and lower feedstock prices underpinned product markets across regions despite rising refinery runs at the end of the heavy refinery maintenance season. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), unplanned outages at secondary units led to upward pressure on US product crack spreads at the middle and bottom sections of the barrel. At the same time, diesel markets in Europe strengthened due to colder weather and rising heating requirements, while a boost in transport fuel loadings in China ahead of a tax rebate cut, effective from 1 December, provided further support. Global refinery intake began to recover in November, with the end of the heavy refinery turnaround season, rising by 1.3 mb/d, m-o-m, to average 80.2 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 169 tb/d.
Tanker Market
Dirty spot freight rates fell across all monitored routes in November, continuing the decline seen at the end of the previous month, as higher vessel availability outpaced tonnage demand. On the Middle East-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates decreased by 9%, m-o-m, in November, while rates on the West Africa-to-East route dropped by 10%. In the Suezmax market, rates on the US Gulf Coast-to-Europe route reversed the previous month’s gains, falling 25%, m-o-m. Aframax spot rates on the Caribbean-to-US East Coast route fell by 34%, retracting after a strong surge the month before. In the clean tanker market, East of Suez rates declined by 15% on average, while West of Suez rates jumped by 19%, m-o-m.
Crude and Refined Product Trade
Available data for November shows US crude imports recovering from the previous month’s decline to average 6.7 mb/d, as refiners returned from maintenance. US crude exports returned above 4 mb/d for the first time in four months, reflecting higher flows to Asia, as well as Europe. US product imports increased to 1.6 mb/d, amid higher flows of gasoline, while exports remained strong at 6.8 mb/d, also led by gasoline. Preliminary estimates for OECD Europe indicate crude imports in November were marginally higher, m-o-m, while product imports fell as lower inflows of diesel offset higher imports of fuel oil. In October, Japan’s crude imports declined by almost 12%, m-o-m, weighed down by softer domestic sales of refined products. Japan’s product imports were around 7% lower, m-o-m, as declines in naphtha, gasoline and gasoil outweighed increased imports of LPG and kerosene. In China, crude imports fell a further 5% compared to the previous month to average 10.6 mb/d in October, while net product imports increased by about 3%, m-o-m, as the decline in exports outpaced the drop in imports. In India, crude imports averaged 4.6 mb/d in October, representing a marginal gain over the previous month as ongoing refinery maintenance limited gains. India’s product exports fell back 24% following the previous month’s strong showing, with all major products registering declines.
Commercial Stock Movements
Preliminary October 2024 data shows total OECD commercial oil stocks down by 22.3 mb, m-o-m. At 2,777 mb, they were 169 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Among components, crude stocks rose by 7.9 mb, m-o-m, while product stocks fell by 30.2 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude stocks stood at 1,324 mb, which is 130 mb less than the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,453 mb, about 39 mb lower than the 2015–2019 average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks rose by 0.3 days, m-o-m, in October, to stand at 60.8 days, which is 1.6 days below the 2015–2019 average.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for DoC crude (i.e. crude from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation) is revised down by 0.3 mb/d from the previous assessment, to stand at 42.4 mb/d in 2024. This is around 0.3 mb/d higher than the 2023 estimate. Demand for DoC crude in 2025 is revised down by around 0.4 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.7 mb/d, around 0.3 mb/d higher than the estimate for 2024.
Source: OPEC
