Following the cost forecasts publicised by Drewry two weeks ago, which have been widely circulated across the industry, we have revised and expanded our forecasts of estimated future container shipping costs for different fuel types.
In this exercise, the accounting of the costs is complex. A higher price for green e-methanol and a full price for grey methanol plus green certificates, as well as a lower Emission Trading Scheme allowance cost of €100 per tonne of CO2 must be considered. Drewry has arrived at even higher cost implications for shippers.
Without switching to greener fuel, the estimated bunker and fuel-related carbon tax cost for a 40ft container from Asia to Europe will increase by 35% by 2026 – see chart.
At the other end of the scale, if adopting green e-methanol (methanol produced using green energy), the cost increase would be about 350% (based on available cost data, which is subject to uncertainty given the lack of scale and experience of this new fuel). This would mean an extra cost of $1,047 per 40ft container from Asia to Europe.
For green e-methanol, we are now assuming a price of $1,200/tonne (equivalent to about $2,400/tonne of VLSFO for the same energy).
The growing question is: can the industry voluntarily adopt green fuels, given the huge cost premium which is now becoming clearer?
Because the cost differential is so big, governments and policy makers will have to adopt stronger or even compulsory rules to force the change if they want to achieve green shipping. Last week, Europe’s Parliament and Council reached a deal on cleaner maritime fuels, asking to cut ship emissions by 2% as of 2025 and by 80% as of 2050, to help the European Union become climate neutral.
Drewry will continue to monitor these regulatory trends and advise BCOs and shipper customers on these complex matters.
Source: Hellenic Shipping News
