Global seaborne oil trade has worsened since the start of the year, with EU crude oil imports also on the retreat. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Banchero Costa said that “after a positive 2023, when global crude oil loadings increased by +4.6% y-o-y, things got much quieter in 2024. In Jan-Dec 2024, global crude oil loadings went up by a modest +0.4% y-o-y to 2194.6 mln tonnes, excluding all cabotage trade, according to vessels tracking data from LSEG. This year started even worse, with global loadings in Jan-Feb 2025 down by -4.8% y-o-y to just 348.1 mln tonnes”.
According to Banchero Costa, “exports from the Arabian Gulf were down by -5.0% y-o-y to 139.5 mln t in Jan-Feb 2025, accounting for 40.1% of seaborne crude trade. Exports from Russian ports (including oil of Kazakh origin) also declined by -7.1% y-o-y in Jan-Feb 2025 to 35.9 mln tonnes, or 10.3% of global trade. From South America, exports increased by +2.6% y-o-y to 32.3 mln t, with a share of 9.3%. From the USA, exports declined by -11.3% y-o-y at 30.4 mln tonnes in Jan-Feb 2025, an 8.7% share. From South East Asia exports crashed by -33.2% y-o-y to 15.4 mln t in Jan-Feb 2025 (but this inevitably reflects changes in the re-export of Russian origin volumes)”.
“In terms of demand, the top seaborne importer of crude oil in Jan-Feb 2025 was Mainland China, accounting for 22.4% of global trade. Volumes into China declined by -7.6% y-o-y to 76.2 mln t in Jan-Feb 2025, from 82.6 mln t in Jan-Feb 2024. Imports to the EU27 declined by -5.1% y-o-y to 75.3 mln t, accounting for 22.4% of global trade. To India, volumes increased +2.1% yo-y to 39.6 mln t in Jan-Feb 2025. To ASEAN, imports declined by -10.5% y-o-y to 39.5 mln t (again this includes Russian volumes later reexported elsewhere in Asia)”, the shipbroker said.
Banchero Costa added that “the European Union is now again the world’s second largest seaborne importer of crude oil, after having briefly overtaken China in 2022. Seaborne imports into the European Union (27) increased by +4.7% y-o-y to 472.4 mln t in Jan-Dec 2023, with the EU accounting for 21.9% of global seaborne crude oil imports. In Jan-Dec 2024, crude imports to the EU27 increased by +1.0% y-o-y to 396.8 mln t. About 15 percent of crude oil volumes discharged in the EU in JanDec 2024 were carried in VLCCs, about 39 percent were carried in Suezmaxes, and about 43 percent in Aframaxes. Top ports in the EU in Jan-Dec 2024 were Rotterdam (96.9 mln tonnes of crude oil in Jan-Dec 2024), Trieste (39.5 mln t), Gdansk (34.7 mln t), Wilhelmshaven (20.4 mln t), Fos (20.1 mln t), Le Havre (19.8 mln t). In Jan-Feb 2025, imports declined by -5.1% y-o-y to 75.3 mln t. In terms of sources of the shipments, there has been understandably a bit of politically driven reshuffling”.
Meanwhile, “seaborne imports from Russian ports (which also includes oil of nonRussian origin such as Kazakh oil), declined again by -3.8% y-o-y in JanFeb 2025 to 10.1 mln t, and are down by more than half from the 22.8 mln t in Jan-Feb 2022. Novorossiysk is still the single largest origin port for crude oil imports into the EU, accounting for 9.5 mln tonnes in Jan-Feb 2025. Russian ports have now fallen to the fourth largest source of seaborne oil to the EU, accounting for 13.4% of volumes in Jan-Feb 2025, behind North Africa (including Sidi Kerir) with 18.9%, the North Sea with 17.7%, and the USA with 14.7%. Imports from North Africa (including from Sidi Kerir) were up by +1.6% yo-y to 14.2 mln t in Jan-Feb 2025. Shipments from the North Sea (Norway and UK) were down -14.9% y-o-y to 13.4 mln t in Jan-Feb 2025. Imports from the USA crashed by -19.5% y-o-y to 11.1 mln t. Shipments from South America to Europe were up by +57.9% y-o-y to 8.3 mln tonnes in Jan-Feb 2025. Volumes from Turkey (Ceyhan) were up by +9.6% y-o-y to 3.1 mln t, from 2.8 mln t of Jan-Feb 2024”, the shipbroker concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou
