Pollsters predicted a nail-biter of an election, but the American public delivered a decisive verdict for Donald Trump. Drawing on insights from our US correspondent and a range of American news sources, we explore the deeper factors behind the results—beyond the headlines.
It’s (Still) the Economy
CNN’s post-election analysis featured a map showing wage growth versus inflation across US counties. The picture was clear: inflation outpaced wage growth in nearly every corner of the country. Despite strong economic growth in the latest data, most ordinary Americans didn’t feel it. Nearly 75% believed the country was headed in the wrong direction and the economy was in bad shape. Trump’s promises to raise tariffs and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US resonated with voters from all backgrounds. Wealthier voters were also drawn to his proposals for significant tax cuts. The economic dissatisfaction among everyday Americans helped fuel Trump’s victory.
Keep Them Out: Immigration as a Key Issue
An Associated Press post-poll analysis revealed that immigration was five times more important to voters in 2024 than it was in 2020. Even many Latino voters—the largest immigrant group—shared concerns about immigration. According to CNN, Trump increased his share of the Latino male vote to 54% in 2024, up from 36% in 2020. For many, particularly among immigrant communities, the growing number of illegal crossings at the southern border was seen as unacceptable. Trump’s hardline stance on immigration, including promises of mass deportations, resonated strongly across social groups. This “shut-the-door-behind-me” mentality played a pivotal role in his appeal.
Men for Trump
Exit polls showed that Trump won the male vote by 10 points, while losing the female vote by 10 points. But perhaps more surprising was his performance among Latino and Black men, where he made significant inroads compared to past Republican candidates. A New York Times analysis suggested that many American men were drawn to Trump’s unapologetic, “I don’t care” attitude. A commentator from Slate argued that the result indicated a desire among some men to “reassert their dominance” in the political and social landscape. Additionally, Trump’s campaign managed to mobilize less-educated men and low-income voters who believed he would make the economy work in their favor. Crucially, abortion rights didn’t seem to be the decisive issue it was in the 2022 midterms, where Kamala Harris had won voters prioritizing abortion by 8 points. In 2024, this group swung back in Trump’s favor.
The Power of White Votes, the ‘Uninspiring’ Kamala, and the Woke Backlash
Trump won the white vote by 11 points, according to exit polls—a significant result, but even more striking was his performance in key battleground states. As the New York Times noted, he secured Florida by 13 points, compared to just 3 points in 2020. Even in states won by Kamala Harris, like New York and Virginia, Trump’s vote share surged, increasing by 13 and 6 points, respectively. The shift to the right was clear across the entire country.
The Christian vote, particularly among evangelical voters, played a pivotal role in Trump’s win. Evangelicals turned out in large numbers to support his campaign, and the election seemed to reflect a broader shift toward voters who believe America should be a predominantly white, Christian nation. In contrast, the Democrats struggled to understand how deeply this cultural war resonated with voters. Trump, however, understood the pulse of this movement—and capitalized on it.
Kamala Harris, who was expected to energize the Democratic base, didn’t inspire much enthusiasm among voters. While she was competent and less controversial than Trump, she lacked the charismatic appeal that energized the Republican side. Harris never developed the passionate fan base that Trump had, even with his provocative statements. A lack of dynamism and the perception that she was uninspiring hurt her campaign, with some even questioning whether Americans were ready for a woman to govern the country’s highest office.
The Woke Backlash: Trump’s Winning Strategy
One of Trump’s most effective tactics was his campaign’s $65 million investment in anti-transgender ads, as reported by the New York Times. Republicans correctly anticipated that many Americans were frustrated with what they saw as the excesses of the “woke” movement. Issues like transgender rights—whether trans individuals should be allowed to use bathrooms corresponding to their gender identity or compete in gender-specific sports—became flashpoints. Many Americans, even some Democrats, felt the party had veered too far left on these cultural issues. Trump’s messaging tapped into this growing dissatisfaction with what was perceived as extreme identity politics.
In the end, Trump’s instincts on cultural issues, especially regarding immigration and the “woke” agenda, proved to be spot-on. His focus on these issues helped him consolidate a broad coalition of voters, propelling him to victory.
